Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
