Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
